Your Team's Umpire Luck, Ranked: All 30 Teams in 2025

Over a 162-game season, every team gets calls that go their way and calls that don't. The question is whether it evens out. For some teams in 2025, it emphatically did not.

We tracked every missed call in every game for all 30 MLB teams and calculated the cumulative impact in runs and win probability. The gap between the luckiest and unluckiest teams is startling.

The Full 2025 Rankings

| Rank | Team | Run Favor | WPA Favor | Games | |------|------|-----------|-----------|-------| | 1 | TOR | +47.3 | +3.26 | 178 | | 2 | SF | +24.7 | +1.94 | 162 | | 3 | NYY | +16.2 | -0.97 | 169 | | 4 | CLE | +15.4 | +2.24 | 163 | | 5 | COL | +12.6 | -0.72 | 161 | | 6 | AZ | +12.4 | -0.65 | 161 | | 7 | DET | +7.7 | -0.13 | 170 | | 8 | CHC | +6.5 | -0.33 | 168 | | 9 | STL | +5.9 | +2.57 | 162 | | 10 | TEX | +4.9 | -0.56 | 162 | | 11 | SEA | +3.2 | -0.42 | 174 | | 12 | WSH | +1.9 | +0.62 | 160 | | 13 | KC | -0.2 | -0.64 | 161 | | 14 | PHI | -0.7 | -0.90 | 165 | | 15 | BOS | -1.0 | -1.07 | 165 | | 16 | HOU | -1.1 | -0.20 | 160 | | 17 | MIL | -1.5 | +0.59 | 170 | | 18 | SD | -1.7 | -0.13 | 164 | | 19 | NYM | -2.1 | +0.43 | 161 | | 20 | OAK | -3.1 | -1.60 | 162 | | 21 | CIN | -5.9 | +0.35 | 163 | | 22 | ATL | -6.3 | -0.89 | 162 | | 23 | LAD | -12.3 | -0.37 | 177 | | 24 | PIT | -14.5 | +0.63 | 161 | | 25 | MIN | -16.8 | -0.13 | 162 | | 26 | MIA | -17.0 | -0.47 | 162 | | 27 | TB | -17.1 | -0.27 | 161 | | 28 | CWS | -17.8 | +0.02 | 162 | | 29 | LAA | -18.9 | -0.25 | 160 | | 30 | BAL | -20.7 | -1.69 | 162 |

The Outliers

Toronto Blue Jays: +47.3 runs. This is a massive outlier — nearly double second place and equivalent to roughly 4-5 wins of value from umpire calls alone. But it's not a mystery: three Blue Jays pitchers (Gausman, Berríos, Bassitt) each ranked in the top 10 for most gifted calls. Their edge-commanding rotation earned more favorable borderline calls than any staff in baseball.

Baltimore Orioles: -20.7 runs. The most squeezed team in baseball, and it's a repeat performance — they were -14.4 in 2024 too. Two consecutive bottom-3 finishes suggest something structural, whether it's pitching style, pitch locations, or simply running into unfavorable umpire assignments.

Los Angeles Dodgers: -12.3 runs. The Dodgers were the most squeezed team in 2024 at -27.0 and remained heavily squeezed in 2025. Over two seasons, they've lost roughly 39 runs to umpire calls — close to 4 wins.

When Runs and Wins Diverge

The two columns — run favor and WPA favor — don't always agree, and the disagreement is revealing.

NYY: +16.2 runs, -0.97 WPA. The Yankees got favorable calls in terms of total runs, but those calls came in low-leverage moments. Blowout innings, early counts, dead spots in the game. When the game was on the line, the calls didn't go their way.

STL: +5.9 runs, +2.57 WPA. The Cardinals got modest run favor, but their favorable calls clustered in high-leverage moments. The Cardinals received fewer total favorable calls than the Yankees but got more value from them because of when they came.

PIT: -14.5 runs, +0.63 WPA. Pittsburgh got squeezed on total run value — among the worst in baseball. But the squeezing came in low-stakes situations. When the game mattered, the calls were closer to neutral.

This is why we report both metrics. Run favor measures the total magnitude. WPA favor measures whether it mattered.

Year-Over-Year Trends

Comparing 2024 and 2025 reveals which teams' umpire luck is structural and which is random:

Consistently favored:

• CLE: +30.7 (2024), +15.4 (2025) — top 5 both years
• NYY: +7.8 (2024), +16.2 (2025) — top 5 both years

Consistently squeezed:

• LAD: -27.0 (2024), -12.3 (2025) — bottom 5 both years
• BAL: -14.4 (2024), -20.7 (2025) — bottom 3 both years
• LAA: -13.1 (2024), -18.9 (2025) — bottom 3 both years

Dramatic reversals:

• TOR: +2.1 (2024) → +47.3 (2025) — near neutral to the biggest outlier in our dataset
• DET: -4.7 (2024) → +7.7 (2025) — squeezed to favored
• CWS: +6.7 (2024) → -17.8 (2025) — favored to squeezed

Teams with consistent multi-year patterns likely reflect roster characteristics — the same pitchers locating to the same spots season after season. Dramatic reversals usually reflect rotation changes, catcher swaps, or simple variance correcting itself.

Does It Affect the Standings?

The crude estimate: 10 runs of value equals roughly 1 win. Toronto's +47.3 run favor translates to about 4-5 wins that might not have happened with perfect umpiring. Baltimore's -20.7 translates to about 2 wins they might have earned.

The WPA-based estimate is more precise for actual win impact, but runs per win is a useful shorthand. In a league where one game can separate a playoff team from a non-playoff team, these aren't trivial numbers.

But here's the important caveat: ump favor is not the same as bias or corruption. The most likely explanation for team-level differences is pitching staff characteristics — how often a team's pitchers locate on the edge, how their catchers frame, and which umpires they draw. The same pitcher, with the same command, would receive similar favor on any team.

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See your team's full game-by-game ump favor log on our team pages, or explore the umpire leaderboard to see which umpires generate the most total favor.